Karl Rove (CRNC alumnus) has shared some insight into the electoral map with Fox News, and I have decided to share it with you here as I prepare to fall asleep assuming that Barack Obama is going to get a bounce out of tonight’s Democratic primaries in Indiana and North Carolina.

The news is good and bad when we look at the maps Mr. Rove has constructed using polling data for general election match-ups with McCain v. Obama (shown below) and McCain v. Clinton. The good news is that the Dems seem to have nominated (presumptively, but they say never count the Clinton’s out ’til their out) the electorally weaker candidate:

The bad news is for College Republicans in those yellow states above - get ready for some serious GOTV work and a lotta attention this summer and fall…

But hey, it’s why we’re here right?!

Some interesting state results to note, both good and bad:

NY - We’re down only 4%!

NE - Up by 3%…

TX - 4%…

MI - Moving to our column!

OH - This is awesome. The GOP in OH has had some rough years for the brand name up there, but we are holding strong in 2008.

FL - If it stays this strong (performing better than state like Montana, South Dakota, and Nebraska for instance) it will be hard to call this a “swing state” in 2008. This speaks to the amazing reputation of former Gov. Bush and current Gov. Crist.

MO - See FL above. Traditionally a bellwether state, with an 8% victory, it will allow us to focus resources elsewhere.

IA - My home state is under-performing.

NM - Up by 2% in a close state from ‘00 and ‘04 with an important congressional and US Senate races.

Well, I could go on here, but those are some notables. Of course, this is all really for naught as it is way too early to be measuring in-state general election polls, but it paints an interesting starting picture. I should note too that states like MO and FL will probably remain incredibly important in the general election even if polls show them at decent margins now. I’m very, very confident we will win both states, but Barack’s say-anything-do-anything campaign will surely contest them with force and CRs will need to be prepared to add a little truth to the madness in states such as these.

If you notice something really striking that I have failed to mention, send it to csmith at crnc dot org and I’ll be happy to include them in a future post!

More specifically, the talented, long-time practicer of the “black arts” of politics goes through the strategy to beat Barack Obama on Tucker Carlson’s show:

By the way, Roger Stone is another College Republican alumnus. He was also recently in the news for some…investigating involving Governor Spitzer.

Former Senator Santorum was a hero to conservatives in nearly every wing of the movement during his time in the Senate. His record could rarely be questioned for the quality of judgment he exhibited for the people of PA, and his leadership is surely missed in the Senate.

He and Senator McCain butted heads from time to time on things like earmarks while they served together, but Santorum also recognizes the importance of the issues facing America with the War on Terror, the economy, and the battle for a culture of life.

In the Philadelphia Inquirer he offers his well-reasoned and emphatic endorsement for Senator McCain for president. He encourages all Americans and conservatives in particular to strongly support Sen. McCain and cites many reason for his decision, so of which I have listed below:

National Security:

McCain is clearly the candidate with the capacity, judgment, experience and will to confront America’s enemies. He’s served our country honorably - heroically - in war. I served eight years with him on the Senate Armed Services Committee, and I can assure you he knows our military. Importantly, he also knows our enemies. He understands their capabilities and their aims. He will not sugarcoat the human or financial commitment and cost needed to defeat this enemy.

Culture of Life

The most important social issue is life. […] he always voted for life and stood for the culture of life. In short, he’s been a reliable vote on life issues, which are critical to conservatives.

Gang of 14/Judges

Many conservatives have given McCain poor marks for his involvement in the Gang of 14. I was in leadership pushing hard for a showdown with the Democrats on using the “Constitutional Option” to end their filibuster of judicial nominations. The Gang of 14 broke the impasse, and it probably was for the best. I was the one counting votes on that issue, and I was much less certain of success than others. In the end, the Gang deal resulted in numerous confirmations of qualified conservative jurists.

…On judges, McCain has repeatedly made clear that he will, as his Web site states, “only nominate judges who understand that their role is to faithfully apply the law as written, not impose their opinions through judicial fiat.” Sounds good to me.

And on and on…

I’d also like to mention here that Senator Santorum is a CR Alumnus as well - he was the State Chairman from Pennsylvania back in the day.

I am currently waiting for the start of the GACR Convention this evening (where yours truly will say a few words about the fine state of Georgia College Republicans and discuss some CRNC programs).

After meeting with some folks this morning I have made my way to National Treasurer Esther Clarks couch to drop a few lines about this weekends events. GACR is expecting 80 people for tonights dinner and 100 for tomorrows business meeting.  Speakers include State Party Chairman Sue Everhart, Lt Governer Casey Cagle, Ralph Reed (a CRNC Alum) and several others.

Esther is unopposed in her second term as State Chairman.  Her ticket includes Jesse Tyler (Vice-Chairman),  and Michelle Timmins (Financial Secretary).  Interestingly GACR  has only 3 elected offices.

…also, Barack Obama and Senator Hillary Clinton do not seem to get it.

By “get it” I mean national security. The public seems, however, to be more in line with reality and, coincidently, so does John McCain. Overwhelmingly in a new survey conducted by Gallup, the American public (let’s call them “voters”) agree with John McCain (and again, reality) when they say how we should deal with the situation in Iraq.

That is, voters want the US and our next president to behave responsibly and in the best interests of America:

 It gets worse for Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Nearly two out of every three Americans surveyed (65%) believe “the United States has an obligation to establish a reasonable level of stability and security in Iraq before withdrawing all of its troops.” The reason is self-interest. Almost the same number of Americans (63%) believe al Qaeda “would be more likely to use Iraq as a base for its terrorist operations” if the U.S. withdraws.

Mr. Rove goes on to layout how the Dems have painted themselves into a corner of both political and foreign policy lunacy and describes how it will be perilous to their campaigns in November.

Elections are rarely decided over just one issue; to win, candidates don’t need to have a majority of Americans agreeing with them on every big issue. But when it comes to choosing a president, Americans take seriously the candidates’ views and experience on national security. Voters instinctively understand a president’s principal constitutional responsibility is protecting the country.

The Democrats have two candidates with less national security experience and fewer credentials than the presumptive Republican nominee, Sen. John McCain. And they are compounding these difficulties with positions on Iraq and terrorist surveillance that are shared by a shrinking minority of Americans.

Stumbled across this trailer for a new documentary on Former RNC Chairman (and former CRNC Executive Director) Lee Atwater.  Given the liberal bent in Hollywood, I somehow doubt that they are going to cast him in the best light, but his was certainly a career worth learning about. 

Anyone interested in learning more about Atwater should check out Bad Boy: The Life and Politics of Lee Atwater.

Karl Rove (ahem: CRNC alumnus) has laid it all out there for The Hill on how we can beat the presidential Dems next fall. Some tidbits:

On Obama:

“He got elected three years ago, and he [has] spent almost the entire time running for president,” Rove said.

Rove added that Obama has only passed one piece of legislation during his time in the U.S. Senate, and during his time in Illinois state Senate, Obama had “an unusual habit” of voting “present” instead of yes or no.

Rove also said that nonpartisan ratings show that Obama is more liberal than Clinton, which he said is “pretty hard to do.”

And Sen. Clinton:

Specifically, Rove hit Clinton for what could have been her worst campaign moment last year, when she had trouble answering a question about driver’s licenses for illegal immigrants at the Democratic debate in Philadelphia.

“You know, Sen. Clinton [has] got a problem with giving straight answers in this campaign,” Rove said. “I thought that was an incredible moment. In the course of 15 minutes, I counted her giving about four different answers.”

The Bush confidant also trotted out one of the lines of attack the RNC has already been working feverishly against Clinton, questioning why she and former President Bill Clinton will not release records from their time in the White House. This, according to Rove, “raises legitimate questions about what she’s hiding.”

And both together now:

Time and again, however, Rove returned to the trump card he used in his successfully executed 2002 and 2004 elections, saying that neither Obama nor Clinton is prepared to protect the country from terrorists.

Rove, as he had before, cautioned however that this race shouldn’t and can’t be only about shining a light on how liberal or untrustworthy the Dems are, but that we must offer a positive, forward-looking vision for America:

He said the candidates had to first “create a sustaining narrative about themselves.” Then he said the candidate should “immediately engage” on the “kitchen table issues,” like healthcare, education, jobs and the economy.

Whenever the Architect speaks, it is wise to listen. Sorta like Yoda…

Today Gov. Bobby Jindal was sworn in as governor of the state of Louisiana. His promotion from Congressman Jindal to Governor Jindal happened despite the supposedly “sour” mood sweeping the nation concerning the Republican Party.

This is not the only promotion Gov. Jindal has experienced in Republican politics - I have heard that he was once a College Republican Chapter Chairman at Brown University and State Chairman of Rhode Island…

He passes along some words of advice to our party and candidates on how to beat the “unstoppable” Hillary. The central messages is this:

“Criticizing her unites the party, stirs up the unsettled feelings many swing voters have toward her and allows each candidate to say why he is best able to beat her. For now, that’s enough. But when a GOP nominee emerges, he needs to remember no Republican is as well known as Hillary. The Republican has room to grow in the polls as voters get a better sense of who he is and what animates him. Here’s what he needs to do.”

Read the whole thing here: LINK

The opinions expressed here are the personal opinions of the poster and do not represent his views as an officer of the College Republican National Committee (CRNC) or the views of the CRNC.