Karl Rove (CRNC alumnus) has shared some insight into the electoral map with Fox News, and I have decided to share it with you here as I prepare to fall asleep assuming that Barack Obama is going to get a bounce out of tonight’s Democratic primaries in Indiana and North Carolina.

The news is good and bad when we look at the maps Mr. Rove has constructed using polling data for general election match-ups with McCain v. Obama (shown below) and McCain v. Clinton. The good news is that the Dems seem to have nominated (presumptively, but they say never count the Clinton’s out ’til their out) the electorally weaker candidate:

The bad news is for College Republicans in those yellow states above - get ready for some serious GOTV work and a lotta attention this summer and fall…

But hey, it’s why we’re here right?!

Some interesting state results to note, both good and bad:

NY - We’re down only 4%!

NE - Up by 3%…

TX - 4%…

MI - Moving to our column!

OH - This is awesome. The GOP in OH has had some rough years for the brand name up there, but we are holding strong in 2008.

FL - If it stays this strong (performing better than state like Montana, South Dakota, and Nebraska for instance) it will be hard to call this a “swing state” in 2008. This speaks to the amazing reputation of former Gov. Bush and current Gov. Crist.

MO - See FL above. Traditionally a bellwether state, with an 8% victory, it will allow us to focus resources elsewhere.

IA - My home state is under-performing.

NM - Up by 2% in a close state from ‘00 and ‘04 with an important congressional and US Senate races.

Well, I could go on here, but those are some notables. Of course, this is all really for naught as it is way too early to be measuring in-state general election polls, but it paints an interesting starting picture. I should note too that states like MO and FL will probably remain incredibly important in the general election even if polls show them at decent margins now. I’m very, very confident we will win both states, but Barack’s say-anything-do-anything campaign will surely contest them with force and CRs will need to be prepared to add a little truth to the madness in states such as these.

If you notice something really striking that I have failed to mention, send it to csmith at crnc dot org and I’ll be happy to include them in a future post!

It seems as though Barack’s problem with rural and sometimes blue-collar voters isn’t going away. McClatchy has an interesting article up on the subject with some great lines from Dem voters who say they will never, ever vote for Obama in a general election:

 Lou Meyer, a housewife in Sellersburg, had similar thoughts. “He won’t wear a flag pin. Anyone who can’t stand up for their country, I won’t vote for,” she said. “If it’s Obama versus McCain, I’m between a rock and a hard place, but I’m not going to vote for Obama.”

…

Dennis Whetsell, a Brownsburg accountant, voiced other concerns: “Obama doesn’t have experience. McCain could work much better with Congress.”

…

“I’d like to get the troops home as quickly as we can,” said Whetsell, “but we also can’t allow the area to fall into the hands of Iran or Syria.” McCain, he said, understands all the nuances.

…

AND they like McCain!

“He’s honest. He’s not afraid to look you in the eye and tell you what he thinks,” said Cheryl Pauley, a Brownsburg housewife. “Obama is a yes man.”

Awesome news!

And some facts to back it all up:

The Pew poll showed that 23 percent of self-described conservative and moderate Democrats say they’d vote for McCain over Obama in November. If Clinton’s the nominee, that number drops to 14 percent.

As we all turn on the TV tonight and it refresh on the election results online (ok, maybe that’s only me), let’s not overlook some important exit poll numbers:

Still petulant: more than 60% of Clinton voters say they wouldn’t be happy if Obama were the nominee; about half of Obama voters say the same. 25% of Clinton supporters say they’d vote for McCain in the general election; 17% of Obama supporters say they’d vote for McCain in the general election.

Courtesy of Marc Ambinder.

Not really sure what to call them, but I’m referring to the swath of voters (GOP, Dem, and Indies) who pulled the lever for our team in 2004, switched to the Dems in 2006, and are again free-agents in the constantly evolving draft of voters that is American politics.

The bottom line is that these folks are coming back in droves to John McCain because they recognize his strong integrity and tremendous leadership skills are what our country needs during a time of war and economic uncertainty. So says the AP, who has been tracking the opinions of 2,000 of these voters for quite some time now.

Soren Dayton over at RedState.com has a great wrap-up of the progress.

A long time ago, I blogged about the Dems tearing each other apart during a couple debates and in the media, and hypothesized that it would have detrimental effects on their ability to pull together this fall. Now my hunch is being confirmed not just by anecdote but through new polling evidence from Franklin & Marshall:

If [FILL preferred candidate] does not win the Democratic nomination, who do
you think you will vote for in the November election? Will you vote for [fill other
candidate], John McCain, some other candidate, or will you probably not vote in the
November election?

Hillary Clinton supporters (n = 228)
53% Barack Obama
19% John McCain
5% Other
13% Won’t vote
10% Don’t know

Barack Obama supporters (n = 126)
60% Hillary Clinton
20% John McCain
3% Other
3% Won’t vote
14% Don’t know

Yes, that’s right John McCain snares about 20% of Dems no matter who he’s running against. So much for he myth of the “Obamacan” Republicans - let’s talk about the McCainocrats!

But wait! It doesn’t stop there! Drudge has posted some new polls from Rassmussen:

 Thursday, March 20, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows John McCain’s lead growing against both potential Democratic opponents. McCain currently leads Barack Obama 49% to 42% and Hillary Clinton 51% to 41% margin (see recent daily results).

Game on!

Let’s all hearken back to about a year ago, and remember what the situation in Iraq was like. The media was reporting dire circumstances, no political progress, and high death tolls on a nearly daily basis. In response, approval for the war effort was low - and the election prospects for people like Sen. John McCain were dim.

Fast forward to the present, and we are experiencing success on multiple fronts in Iraq as deaths of both Americans and Iraqis have plummeted, political progress is being made, and the terrorists and Muqtada al-Sadr are giving up and moving to Iran.

And what of the stories telling the fatal tale of John McCain being the largest proponent of the proven successful surge strategy? Well, let’s go to the polls:

According to late February polling conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, 53 percent of Americans — a slim majority — now believe “the U.S. will ultimately succeed in achieving its goals” in Iraq. That figure is up from 42 percent in September 2007.

The percentage of those who believe the war in Iraq is going “very well” or “fairly well” is also up, from 30 percent in February 2007 to 48 percent today.

As I’ve always said, Americans love to win - and as long as we have leaders like John McCain in America, we will win.

Obama = 47%

Clinton = 45%

http://www.gallup.com/poll/104530/Gallup-Daily-Tracking-Election-2008.aspx

Rasmussen Reports – Clinton leads in Rhode Island, Texas race neck-and-neck

Rhode Island

Clinton = 53%

Obama = 38%

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/rhode_island/rhode_island_democratic_presidential_primary

Texas

Clinton = 46%

Obama = 45%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/texas/texas_democratic_presidential_primary

Clinton = 50%

Obama = 45%

http://trailblazers.beloblog.com/archives/2008/02/new-texas-poll-hillary-holds-t.html#comments

…isn’t even her. Not that surprising really.
That’s right - Hillary Clinton’s biggest reason to vote for her…is Bill with 26%. He just beats out “experience” with 23%. Whose experience, exactly, they don’t bother to delve into.

At least so says the New York Times/CBS News Poll released on Monday.

Also funny in the analysis is that Obama’s big debut of Oprah Winfrey might have actually hurt him with voters. One 1% of Dems say they would vote for someone because she has endorsed them, compared to 14% who break the other way.